I started this venture in 2008 as an avenue to talk about a wide variety of topics, but primarily as a SCUBA blog under the name "Musings from the Deep Blue Sea". It's evolved. My renewed interest in health, fitness, and nutrition (at the age of 43) has brought me to where I am today, and this site reflects that. Having said that, my original mission statement hasn't changed...

Our lives are important only because of the impact they have on the lives of others. Making a difference is important. This blog isn't written for you, it's written for me. My way of reviewing my life, and its significance...Of course, given my wide range of interests in life, there will be much variety. Welcome to my life.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Genius and Stupidity

Anyone who follows financial markets has seen the price of gold make huge jumps over the course of the last several years. Gold is currently trading at around $830, up from the sub-$300 range in 2001. It actually broke the $1000 barrier earlier this year, but has since backed off.

What many are not aware of is that a man by the name of James Sinclair, a leading gold expert, predicted this run, along with the fall of the US dollar. Mr. Sinclair's prediction takes gold to $1650 in 2011. He has also stated that his prediction may have been too conservative, and the price may go higher.

What's odd about James Sinclair is his overall outlook on the world. Read his writings for a week or two, and you may well feel the need to seek help for depression. I find him to be brilliant in his long term predictions, but he usually misses his short term calls.

I also find that his opinions on everything are a reflection of his financial pessimism, often to absurd degrees. When he comments on things outside of his area of expertise, he often sounds foolish. Take one of his writings from yesterday, regarding GM getting a $50 billion US Treasury loan for the development of electric cars and low gas consumption vehicles.

He writes, "If GM wanted a viable electric car they need only call the Tesla Company. They have made a real car, not an overblown golf cart. This car does 0 to 60 in 5 seconds with an equally respectable 1/4 mile both in speed and elapsed time. It tops out at 125 MPH. The car is pricey as it is developed on a Lotus chassis. If produced in good numbers and put on the low level cheap GM or Ford chassis they would have what they supposedly borrowed $50 billion from the US Treasury to invent and produce.

All GM needs in order to find a way to produce a real electric car is a used laptop with an internet connection. That might cost $600." To read more, visit his website, Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

Really, Mr. Sinclair? Let's pretend for a moment that the batteries for this car don't cost between 25 and 30 thousand dollars. Let's pretend that the ultralight chassis they use isn't what allows their electric motors to effectively power the vehicle. Let's pretend that making the car a five seater with room for cargo wouldn't destroy its range, acceleration, and top speed. We can stop pretending now...these are real hurdles, and certainly not the only ones.

To make this car a reality for the typical driver, It must be inexpensive, have good range, seat a family, have reasonable charging options, and pass crash tests. Mr. Sinclair's claim that they could modify this car to be cheap and practical is analogous to claiming that railroad engines of the 1800's could have been easily scaled down for use as personal vehicles...it isn't that easy, no matter how much Mr. Sinclair wishes it to be.

Congrats to Tesla, they've made a great first step toward electric vehicles. I'm sure they'd be the first to tell you that they are far from ready for practical car production.

James Sinclair is a gold genius...and a tech fool.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Check out the Aptera (www.aptera.com) it gets 300 mpg!! Probably far better than GM will ever make.